The NBA Draft 2025 is almost here, and for teams like the Utah Jazz, this is the moment they’ve been waiting for. But as lottery day approaches, it’s hard not to ask: Did the Jazz go too far in chasing lottery odds that might not work in their favor?
After finishing the 2024-25 season with a brutal 17–65 record—the worst in franchise history and the league’s worst overall—the Jazz positioned themselves for the top odds in the NBA Draft 2025. On paper, that sounds like a win for a rebuilding team. But history paints a much different picture.
Let’s break down why Utah’s strategy may have backfired, and why landing the No. 1 pick—presumably to draft phenom Cooper Flagg—is far from guaranteed.
Utah’s Race to the Bottom
It’s no secret what Utah was doing this season. They tanked—and they tanked hard. A 17-win campaign doesn’t just happen by accident. The Jazz weren’t aiming for playoff glory; they were gunning for ping-pong balls. This was all about improving their chances at grabbing the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft 2025.
But here’s the thing: tanking doesn’t guarantee anything anymore.
Since the NBA revised its draft lottery format in 2019, the three worst teams in the league all get an equal 14% shot at the top pick. That was meant to discourage blatant tanking. And guess what? It’s kind of working—at least in the sense that being the worst team no longer means you get the best player.
A History of Disappointment
Let’s look at the numbers. Since the odds change in 2019, how many times has the team with the worst record actually won the draft lottery?
Zero.
Yes, 0-for-6.
Let’s run down the lottery results since 2019:
2024 – Detroit (worst record) → 5th pick
2023 – Detroit → 5th pick
2022 – Houston → 3rd pick
2021 – Houston → 2nd pick
2020 – Golden State → 2nd pick
2019 – New York → 3rd pick
That’s not just bad luck—it’s a trend. In fact, since the odds were flattened, no team with the league’s worst record has received the No. 1 pick. The Jazz might have increased their odds of winning, but they’ve also increased their odds of heartbreak.
What’s Really at Stake?
Let’s say Utah does fall out of the top spot. What are they potentially losing? Quite a lot, actually. The consensus No. 1 prospect in the NBA Draft 2025 is Cooper Flagg—a dynamic, two-way forward being compared to Scottie Pippen with even higher upside. He’s the kind of franchise-altering player that every struggling team dreams about.
Miss out on Flagg, and the Jazz are likely looking at a consolation prize, not a cornerstone.
And history hasn’t been kind in that department either. Consider some of the recent top picks:
2019: New York missed Zion and Ja, drafted RJ Barrett
2020: Golden State took James Wiseman instead of Anthony Edwards
2022 & 2023: Houston missed on Cade Cunningham and Paolo Banchero
2024: Detroit lost out on Victor Wembanyama
Landing outside the top spot often means watching someone else take the superstar, while you settle for “good” instead of “great.”
Is the Tank Worth It?
This leads us to a tough question: Is tanking still worth it under the current draft system?
For Utah, the answer might soon be a painful “no.” If the Jazz fall in the lottery yet again—continuing the post-2019 trend—their record-setting losing season could end up being a wasted effort. And if that happens, how many more seasons can Utah afford to roll the dice and rebuild again?
The margin for error is razor-thin. With only a 14% chance at the top pick and an 86% chance of landing somewhere lower, Utah’s strategy is a high-risk gamble that may not pay off.
A Dangerous Cycle
There’s another concern too: What if the Jazz get stuck in a loop of losing? Tanking one season is bad enough, but two or three seasons of bottom-barrel basketball can do lasting damage to a franchise—on and off the court.
Fan morale declines. Player development stalls. Free agents stay away. Even promising young talent can get frustrated and seek opportunities elsewhere.
This is the dark side of the draft lottery—when hope turns into habit, and the rebuild becomes a rut.
Can Utah Break the Cycle?
There’s still hope. If the Jazz win the 2025 lottery, Cooper Flagg could transform their fortunes almost overnight. He’s a player that could restore faith in the process and give Utah the kind of superstar talent they’ve lacked since the Donovan Mitchell era.
But if they don’t? Then it’s back to square one—with nothing but more questions, and perhaps even a reckoning with the tanking philosophy itself.
Final Thoughts
As the NBA Draft 2025 approaches, the Utah Jazz are staring at a crucial moment in their rebuild. They’ve put all their chips on the table in hopes of landing the No. 1 pick. But the odds—and recent history—aren’t exactly on their side.
The Jazz may have clinched the worst record in the league, but did they win anything that matters?
Come May 12, we’ll find out whether Utah’s bold gamble pays off—or whether it becomes a cautionary tale for every other team considering the same path.