The regular season is over, and now it’s time for the most exciting part of college basketball—March Madness. As teams battle in their conference tournaments, the race for NCAA Tournament bids is heating up. Some teams are fighting to solidify their spot, while others are hoping to sneak into the 68-team bracket at the last moment.
With March Madness predictions shifting after each game, bubble teams are feeling the pressure. A few programs that seemed safe just a week ago now find themselves in must-win situations. Meanwhile, potential bid-stealers could shake up the tournament field by winning their conference tournaments.
As the selection committee finalizes the bracket, let’s break down the March Madness predictions—from the last four teams in to the first four teams out, and which teams are projected to grab the coveted No. 1 seeds.
Last Four In: Teams Holding On
These four teams are barely clinging to a spot in the NCAA Tournament, needing strong performances in their conference tournaments to stay in the field.
1. Baylor
Despite an inconsistent season, Baylor’s strong non-conference wins and ability to compete in a deep Big 12 have kept them in the tournament conversation. They need at least one more quality win to feel safer on Selection Sunday.
2. Oklahoma
Oklahoma made a huge statement in the final week of the regular season, picking up two Quad 1 victories against Missouri and Texas. These wins helped move them into the “Last Four In,” but they can’t afford an early exit in the Big 12 Tournament.
3. Xavier
Xavier has been on the edge for weeks, and a few late-season wins boosted their March Madness predictions. However, their resume still has some holes, and one bad loss could drop them back into the “First Four Out.”
4. Ohio State
Ohio State has been a bubble team all season, but a strong showing in the Big Ten Tournament could seal their place in March Madness. Their defense remains a concern, but their resume is just strong enough to stay in the field—for now.
First Four Out: Who Needs a Miracle?
These teams are just outside the tournament field and will need an impressive conference tournament run to earn a spot.
1. San Diego State
A few missed opportunities late in the season pushed San Diego State just outside the projected field. A win over a ranked opponent in the conference tournament might be enough to sneak in.
2. Boise State
Boise State has been on the bubble all year, and their inconsistency has kept them from securing a tournament spot. They’ll need multiple wins in their conference tournament to move up in March Madness predictions.
3. North Carolina
It’s hard to imagine March Madness without North Carolina, but that’s the reality they’re facing. Their Quad 1 record is underwhelming, and without a deep ACC Tournament run, they’ll likely be watching the Big Dance from home.
4. Texas
Texas is another team that struggled late in the season, making their March Madness predictions look grim. Unless they can pull off some upsets in the Big 12 Tournament, they’ll remain on the outside looking in.
Projected No. 1 Seeds: The Best of the Best
While the bubble teams fight for their spots, the top teams are battling for the four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Here’s who’s leading the race.
1. Auburn
Auburn has been one of the most dominant teams all season, finishing with a 27-4 record. Despite a couple of late losses, they have more Quad 1 wins than any other team and are likely to secure a No. 1 seed.
2. Duke
Duke has been red-hot in the second half of the season, cruising through the ACC. Their efficiency metrics are off the charts, and a strong conference tournament performance could make them the overall No. 1 seed in March Madness predictions.
3. Florida
Florida has flown under the radar but has quietly put together an elite resume. Their combination of a strong strength of schedule and big wins makes them a strong contender for a No. 1 seed.
4. Houston
Houston has dominated the Big 12, proving they can compete at the highest level. Their elite defense and consistent performances have made them a top-tier team heading into March Madness.
Other Key Tournament Teams by Seed
While the No. 1 seeds are the favorites, plenty of dangerous teams are lurking in the field. Here’s how other projected tournament teams stack up:
No. 2 Seeds
- Alabama
- Tennessee
- Michigan State
- Texas A&M
No. 3 Seeds
- St. John’s
- Texas Tech
- Iowa State
- Kentucky
No. 4 Seeds
- Wisconsin
- Purdue
- Maryland
- Clemson
No. 5-10 Seeds
The middle of the bracket is filled with powerhouse programs and potential Cinderella teams. Here are some notable squads:
- No. 5: Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, Oregon
- No. 6: UCLA, Saint Mary’s, Louisville, BYU
- No. 7: Marquette, Memphis, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
- No. 8: Kansas, Illinois, UConn, Creighton
- No. 9: Gonzaga, New Mexico, Vanderbilt, Utah State
- No. 10: Drake (Missouri Valley winner), Arkansas, West Virginia, Georgia
Final Thoughts on March Madness Predictions
With Selection Sunday approaching, the March Madness predictions are constantly shifting. While some teams like Auburn and Duke have all but locked in their top seeds, bubble teams like Oklahoma and Xavier are still fighting for their spot.
Conference tournament results will play a massive role in shaping the final bracket. Will a surprise bid-stealer shake things up? Can North Carolina or Texas make a Cinderella run and sneak into the field?
The only thing that’s certain is March Madness will be full of surprises. Get ready for the chaos, because this year’s tournament is shaping up to be one of the wildest ever.
