The college basketball regular season has wrapped up, and now all eyes are on the NCAA Tournament selection process. Two powerhouse teams, Auburn and Duke, have made compelling cases for the No. 1 overall seed, but only one can take the top spot.
Auburn looked like the frontrunner for much of the season, dominating the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and securing the regular season title with a week to go. However, two tough losses to end the season, including a heartbreaking buzzer-beater loss to rival Alabama, might have slightly weakened the Tigers’ grip on the top seed.
Meanwhile, Duke has surged ahead, finishing the regular season with an impressive 28-3 record and a near-perfect 19-1 mark in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). With the AP Poll set to release soon, the Blue Devils are expected to claim the No. 1 ranking, adding fuel to their case for the top spot in the NCAA Tournament.
So, who truly deserves the No. 1 overall seed? Let’s break down both teams’ resumes and see how they stack up.
Auburn’s Resume: A Battle-Tested Powerhouse
- Overall Record: 27-4
- Conference Record (SEC): 15-3
- Quad I Record: 16-4
- Quad II Record: 5-0
- Quad III Record: 2-0
- Quad IV Record: 4-0
Auburn’s biggest strength is its battle-tested schedule. The Tigers have played—and won—more Quad I games than any other team in the nation. That means they’ve consistently beaten top-tier opponents, proving their ability to compete at the highest level.
Their strength of schedule ranks 2nd nationally, trailing only Alabama. They’ve faced elite competition week after week, navigating one of the toughest conferences in college basketball.
While the season ended with back-to-back losses, Auburn’s 17 wins against projected NCAA Tournament teams is unmatched. Their ability to thrive against elite opponents makes them a strong contender for the No. 1 overall seed.
Duke’s Resume: The Most Dominant Team in College Basketball?
- Overall Record: 28-3
- Conference Record (ACC): 19-1
- Quad I Record: 7-3
- Quad II Record: 7-0
- Quad III Record: 9-0
- Quad IV Record: 5-0
Duke’s argument for the NCAA Tournament’s top seed centers on dominance. The Blue Devils have steamrolled opponents, winning ACC games by an average of 23.1 points. Their only conference loss came against a projected No. 4 seed (Clemson), making it far from a bad loss.
While Auburn has played a tougher schedule, Duke holds the head-to-head win over the Tigers. That victory could be a key deciding factor for the selection committee.
Duke also ranks No. 1 in KenPom’s efficiency ratings, leading all teams by a significant margin. Their adjusted efficiency margin (39.65) is on pace to be the highest since 1999, a record previously held by… Duke.
Beyond KenPom, the Blue Devils also top:
✅ NCAA NET Rankings
✅ EvanMiya’s team relative ratings
✅ Bart Torvik’s T-rank
While Auburn has a more impressive resume on paper, no team has been as dominant game-to-game as Duke. The Blue Devils have done exactly what they were supposed to do—win convincingly.
What the Experts Say: Who’s the No. 1 Seed?
Basketball analysts and bracketologists are split on whether Auburn or Duke should get the No. 1 overall seed:
📌 ESPN’s Joe Lunardi: Auburn
📌 CBS’ Jerry Palm: Duke
📌 Fox’s Mike DeCourcy: Auburn
📌 On3’s James Fletcher III: Auburn
Auburn appears to have the edge among analysts, but Duke’s case remains strong.
Breaking Down the Case for Each Team
🏀 Auburn’s Case for the No. 1 Overall Seed
✅ Most Quad I wins in the country (16)
✅ Second-toughest schedule in college basketball
✅ 17 wins over projected NCAA Tournament teams
✅ Proven ability to win big games
Auburn’s resume is simply stronger. They’ve played and beaten more elite teams than anyone else. Even with their two late-season losses, their body of work remains unmatched.
🏀 Duke’s Case for the No. 1 Overall Seed
✅ Higher overall record (28-3 vs. 27-4)
✅ More dominant performances (winning ACC games by 23.1 PPG)
✅ No. 1 in every efficiency ranking (KenPom, NET, Torvik, EvanMiya)
✅ Head-to-head win over Auburn
Duke’s argument boils down to dominance. The Blue Devils have controlled every game they’ve played, even if their competition wasn’t as strong as Auburn’s.
Final Verdict: Who Should Be No. 1?
Both Auburn and Duke have compelling arguments for the top spot in the NCAA Tournament. Auburn has faced the tougher schedule, won more big games, and compiled the best overall resume.
But Duke has been the most dominant team in the country, finishing with a better record, a head-to-head win over Auburn, and the No. 1 spot in every advanced metric.
So, who should get the No. 1 overall seed? The answer depends on what the selection committee values more:
📌 If strength of schedule and quality wins matter most → Auburn is No. 1.
📌 If dominance and efficiency matter most → Duke is No. 1.
Regardless of who gets the top seed, both teams are strong contenders to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. And with March Madness right around the corner, anything can happen.
Who do YOU think deserves the No. 1 overall seed? Let us know in the comments! ⬇️🏀