College basketball’s version of free agency — the transfer portal — has closed, and it’s already clear how much power it holds over a team’s success. The moves made this offseason will shape the 2025 NCAA tournament picture, and for some programs, it could be the difference between a Final Four run or missing the Big Dance entirely.
Take Florida, for example. Their path to a national title in 2025 started not in the tournament, but just days after their early 2024 exit. The Gators retained key players in the portal while landing impact transfers like Alijah Martin (FAU) and Rueben Chinyelu (Washington State). That blend of loyalty and savvy additions helped fuel their championship run.
But not every school came out a winner. Here’s a look at the top 5 winners, 4 biggest losers, and 1 wildcard to watch from the men’s college basketball transfer portal this offseason.
🏆 Winners of the Transfer Portal
1. Michigan Michigan crushed it in the transfer portal, assembling one of the most complete groups of newcomers in the country. The headliner is Yaxel Lendeborg (UAB), a versatile two-way big man who could be a star — if he doesn’t stay in the 2025 NBA Draft. Even without him, the Wolverines are stacked. Morez Johnson (Illinois) provides interior muscle, Aday Mara (UCLA) brings elite size and passing, and Elliott Cadeau (UNC) adds serious playmaking. Roddy Gayle Jr. also returns after a strong finish to last season. Despite some departures, Michigan may have upgraded from its Sweet 16 team.
2. St. John’s After a disappointing early NCAA exit, Rick Pitino reloaded for another run. The Red Storm added scoring punch with Ian Jackson (UNC) and Joson Sosan (Arizona State), while 6’9 leaper Dillon Mitchell (Texas/Cincinnati) boosts the frontcourt. Shooter Oziyah Sellers (USC) adds spacing, and perhaps most importantly, they retained big man Zuby Ejiofor. Losing RJ Luis hurts, but the team’s balance looks better, especially offensively.
3. Iowa New coach Ben McCollum wasted no time transforming the Hawkeyes. He brought his star from Drake, Bennett Stirtz — one of the best guards in the nation — and surrounded him with shooters like Brendan Hausen (Kansas State) and Alvaro Folgueiras (Robert Morris), a 6’9 Spanish forward who hit 41% from three. Add four more players from McCollum’s old team, and Iowa has a deep, experienced roster built for success.
4. Kentucky Armed with a reported $20 million NIL budget, Kentucky went all-in. Head coach Mark Pope landed Jayden Quaintance (Arizona State), one of the top NBA prospects in the portal. He’s joined by Kam Williams (Tulane), a strong 3-and-D wing, and experienced guards like Denzel Aberdeen (Florida) and Jaland Lowe (Pitt). Athletic forward Mouhamed Dioubate (Alabama) rounds out a group with serious Final Four potential — if the backcourt holds up.
5. Louisville Coach Pat Kelsey didn’t wait to make his moves. Adrian Wooley, one of the top mid-major freshmen last year, headlines the class with his scoring and shooting ability. Ryan Conwell (Xavier) and Isaac McKneely (Virginia) bring more firepower, while five-star freshman Mikal Brown could make an immediate impact. Louisville did lose big man James Scott, but this group should contend and possibly make noise in March.
😬 Losers of the Transfer Portal
1. Indiana New coach Darian DeVries brought in a deep group, including his talented son Tucker DeVries and solid mid-major scorers like Reed Bailey (Davidson) and Lamar Wilkerson (Sam Houston). But most of the additions come from smaller programs, and the Hoosiers may lack athleticism and frontcourt size to compete at the top of the Big Ten. This class has potential but might not move the needle right away.
2. Baylor Scott Drew usually reloads with ease, but this offseason felt like more loss than gain. Losing Robert Wright II to BYU stung badly. Michael Rataj (Oregon State) and Obi Agbim (Wyoming) offer promise, but the Bears don’t seem as dangerous as they usually do. With time still to make moves, don’t count them out — but for now, they’ve slipped.
3. North Carolina UNC brought in talent, including Henri Veesaar (Arizona), one of the top centers available, and Jarin Stevenson (Alabama). But with key departures like RJ Davis, Elliot Cadeau, and Jalen Washington, the Tar Heels didn’t upgrade as much as they needed. Kyan Evans (Colorado State) will be under pressure to lead the backcourt, and the jury’s still out on whether UNC improved enough in a pivotal year for Hubert Davis.
4. Arizona State The Sun Devils had talent last year but couldn’t put it together. After a 13-20 season, they watched top players like Jayden Quaintance (Kentucky) and Joson Sosan (St. John’s) walk out the door. Marcus Adams Jr. (Cal State Northridge) and Maurice Odum (Pepperdine) were decent pickups, but overall, ASU lost more than it gained. It’s hard to see a big bounce back coming.
🃏 Wildcard: USC
Eric Musselman’s debut season at USC didn’t go as planned, but he used the transfer portal to reload with talent that could turn things around fast. Rodney Rice (Maryland) brings elite three-point shooting — for the reported cost of $3 million — and Chad Baker-Mazara (Auburn) adds defense and Final Four experience. Jacob Cofie (Virginia) is a strong addition in the post. Yes, they lost Desmond Claude and Wesley Yates III, but the Trojans might have the right mix to surprise people. All eyes will be on freshman Alijah Arenas after his recent car accident.
Final Thoughts
The transfer portal has officially become the most important offseason tool in college basketball. It can lift a team into national title contention or drag them into rebuilding mode. Whether it’s Michigan retooling into a Final Four contender or Arizona State watching talent walk out the door, the portal is reshaping the sport at warp speed.
Programs that adapt and thrive in this new era will dominate the postseason — and those who don’t may get left behind.